RISCONAPOSTOLUS

Question → Target

Comparison & Review

Where a recorded target meets a measured value. Each comparison states the scope of its measurement, because a value inside a synthetic scope and a value on real cases answer different questions.

9Comparisons recordedSame metric as the internal target
6Within the criterion, in scopeNot a research outcome
2Below the targetKept as recorded
0External-cohort comparisonsNone has been run

Target against measured value

“Within the criterion in this scope” means the measurement met the predefined criterion inside the scope named beside it. It does not mean the project’s target has been achieved.

ProjectInternal targetMeasured valueScope of the measurementReading
19-1At least 90% of causal genes in the top five172 of 1,874 in the top five (9.18%)Published casesBelow the target
8-1At least 95% of downstream predictive performance retainedLowest of 4 endpoints 91.4%; 3 of 4 at or above 95% (synthetic, baseline generator; release blocked)Synthetic inputs onlyBelow the target
18-2Zero missed contraindications or look-alike medication errors0 of 4,500 injected errors passed (simulated vision outputs; 62.0% of correct fills passed automatically)Synthetic inputs onlyWithin the criterion in this scope
16-2Difficulty convergence in at least 95% of simulated episodesSynthetic convergence rate 96.2% (lower bound 0.9505)Synthetic inputs onlyWithin the criterion in this scope
16-3External cohort AUROC of at least 0.90Synthetic external AUROC 0.932 and 0.926; below target: ZERO_ADAPTATION_B_TO_A, SPEECH_UNSEEN_UNIT, EFFECT_SCALE_0.5, EFFECT_SCALE_0.75Synthetic inputs onlyDiffers by measure
12-1At least 90% recall for acute crisis signalsSynthetic recall 0.9155Synthetic inputs onlyWithin the criterion in this scope
12-2Zero clinically disallowed response events on the fixed test0 of 30,190 (synthetic)Synthetic inputs onlyWithin the criterion in this scope
12-3At least 85% precision for detecting transitions into sustained isolationSynthetic precision 0.978 (lower bound 0.933)Synthetic inputs onlyWithin the criterion in this scope
12-4100% immediate handoff after a detected crisis state1,584 of 1,584 detected turns (synthetic)Synthetic inputs onlyWithin the criterion in this scope

Measurements of something other than the target

These modules measure a different quantity from the project’s internal target, so they are not entered in the comparison above.

19-1Public-record auditDifferent measure

ACMG criteria claims audited against public records

Every ACMG criterion an agent claims is checked against an evidence ledger built from public records before it can reach a report. On 20 held-out genes the pipeline kept 1,323 of 1,324 expert-benign variants out of the pathogenic classes (99.92%) and called 984 of 1,890 expert-pathogenic variants pathogenic or likely pathogenic (52.06%). The audit gate stopped 9,493 of 9,493 injected unsupported claims and blocked 0 of the 164,867 criteria derived from the ledger.

19-1Synthetic replayDifferent measure

Role separation and audit gates on fixed synthetic cases

The runner annotates variants from a fixed VCF subset and ranks candidate genes from HPO phenotypes; a separate audit command rechecks evidence codes, ranks and input hashes. 2 of 4 synthetic cases reached the top five. A tie counts only if the whole tied group fits within five places.

What a comparison does not show

No comparison on this screen was made on an independent external cohort, and none is signed by the auditor. The limits of each measurement are listed on the project record it links to.

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